lundi 20 juillet 2009

Forex Market Overview












Forex Market Overview



 


Introduction


The following facts and figures relate to the foreign
exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007
Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and
Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks
and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting
information from approximately 1280 market participants.


 


Excerpt from the BIS:


"The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity
in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004.
Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an
increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant
exchange rates...Against the background of low levels of
financial market volatility and risk aversion, market
participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of
investor groups including
hedge
funds
, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in
the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors...A marked
increase in the levels of

technical trading
– most notably algorithmic trading – is
also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot
market...Transactions between reporting dealers and
non-reporting financial institutions, such as
hedge
funds
, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies,
more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and
contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate
turnover."
- BIS


 


Structure


 



  • Decentralised 'interbank' market

  • Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and
    investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private
    speculators

  • The free-floating currency system arose from the
    collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971

  • Online trading began in the mid to late 1990's





Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007


 


Trading Hours


 



  • 24 hour market

  • Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST.

  • Trading begins in the Asia-Pacific region followed by
    the Middle East, Europe, and America


 


Size


 



  • One of the largest financial markets in the world

  • $3.2 trillion average daily turnover, equivalent to:

     

    • More than 10 times the average daily turnover of
      global equity markets1

    • More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the
      NYSE2

    • Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on
      earth3

    • An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4



       



  • The spot market accounts for just under one-third of
    daily turnover


1. About $280 billion - World Federation of
Exchanges aggregate 2006

2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006

3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau


4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.





Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007


 


Major Markets


 



  • The US & UK markets account for just over 50% of
    turnover

  • Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo

  • Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap5

  • Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning
    hours while European markets are open6


5. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United
States - NY Federal Reserve

6. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal
Reserve


 


Average Daily Turnover by Geographic Location


 



Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007


Concentration in the Banking Industry



  • 12 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.K.

  • 10 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.S.

  • 3 banks account for 75% of turnover in Switzerland

  • 9 banks account for 75% of turnover in Japan


Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007


 


Technical Analysis


 


Commonly used technical indicators:



 

  • Moving averages

  • RSI

  • Fibonacci retracements

  • Stochastics

  • MACD

  • Momentum

  • Bollinger bands

  • Pivot point

  • Elliott Wave


 


Currencies


 



  • The US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign
    exchange transactions, equivalent to over US$2.7 trillion
    per day


 


Currency Codes


 



  • USD = US Dollar

  • EUR = Euro

  • JPY = Japanese Yen

  • GBP = British Pound

  • CHF = Swiss Franc

  • CAD = Canadian Dollar (Sometimes referred to as the "Loonie")

  • AUD = Australian Dollar

  • NZD = New Zealand Dollar


 


Average Daily Turnover by Currency


 



N.B. Because two currencies are involved in
each transaction, the sum of the percentage shares of individual
currencies totals 200% instead of 100%.


Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007


 


Currency Pairs


 



  • Majors: EUR/USD (Euro-Dollar), USD/JPY, GBP/USD - (commonly
    referred to as the "Cable"), USD/CHF

  • Dollar bloc: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - (commonly
    referred to as the "Kiwi")

  • Major crosses: EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF


 


Average Daily Turnover by Currency Pair


 



Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007



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